Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (XERS)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Xeris delivered record Q2 2025 revenue of $71.5M, up 48.8% year-over-year, with Recorlev driving growth (+136% YoY to $31.4M) and a sharply narrower net loss of $1.9M (EPS -$0.01), versus $15.0M (EPS -$0.10) a year ago .
• The company raised FY 2025 total revenue guidance to $280–$290M (from $260–$275M), citing continued demand momentum, particularly in Recorlev, and operational discipline; management also now expects low-to-mid-teens increases in SG&A and R&D versus prior mid-to-high single-digit guidance .
• Gross margin was 82% in Q2 (vs. 85% in Q1), reflecting non-routine expenses tied to Gvoke capacity expansion; Adjusted EBITDA improved to $12.5M from ($0.4)M in Q2 2024 and from $4.4M in Q1 2025, underscoring stronger operating leverage .
• Street estimates were exceeded: revenue beat by ~$7.96M and EPS beat by ~$0.02 in Q2 2025; management’s guidance raise and Recorlev trajectory are likely catalysts for estimate and sentiment upgrades* .
• Near-term stock reaction catalysts include: a clear revenue beat, raised full-year guidance, sustained Recorlev demand, and confirmation of positive adjusted EBITDA going forward; watch for increased OpEx to fund commercial expansion and XP-8121 advancement .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Recorlev momentum: “RECORLEV continues to lead our growth… reaching over $31,000,000 of revenue in the quarter,” with average patients on therapy +122% YoY; management emphasized “RECORLEV is the right product at the right time” .
• Broad-based demand: Gvoke revenue +17% YoY to $23.5M, supported by prescription growth (+5%) and favorable gross-to-net; CFO expects “favorability to continue for the balance of the year” .
• Profitability improvement: Adjusted EBITDA of $12.5M vs. ($0.4)M in Q2 2024 and $4.4M in Q1 2025; net loss improved to $1.9M vs. $15.0M in Q2 2024, demonstrating operating leverage and disciplined expense management .

What Went Wrong

• Gross margin dip: Q2 gross margin fell to 82% from 85% in Q1 due to non-routine expenses tied to Gvoke capacity expansion; while modest, it softened sequential margin performance .
• Keveyis decline YoY: Keveyis revenue decreased 12.5% YoY to $11.5M due to “a reduction in product shipments,” highlighting ongoing shipment variability despite sequential stability .
• Higher OpEx trajectory: Raised FY 2025 OpEx guidance (SG&A/R&D low-to-mid-teens increase vs. prior mid-to-high single digits) to support Recorlev expansion and XP-8121, which may temper near-term margin gains even as Adjusted EBITDA remains positive .

Financial Results

Consolidated P&L (oldest → newest)

Margins & EBITDA

Segment/Product Revenue (oldest → newest)

KPIs

Guidance Changes

Rationale: Management cited strong commercial performance (Recorlev adoption) and operational discipline for the revenue raise; OpEx increase reflects incremental value-driven investments in Recorlev and XP-8121 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• CEO: “Total revenue… increased almost 50% year-over-year to a record $72 million… we’re raising our full-year revenue guidance to $280–$290 million,” underscoring confidence in demand .
• CEO: “RECORLEV is the right product at the right time… uniquely positioned to capitalize on [the] market,” emphasizing sustained investment in commercial footprint .
• CFO: “Gross margin in the quarter was 82%, slightly below the first quarter due to expenses associated with Gvoke capacity expansion… On a year-to-date basis, gross margin was 84%” .
• CFO: “We are raising our total revenue guidance to $280,000,000 to $290,000,000… and anticipate a low to mid teens percentage increase in SG&A and R&D expenses” to support Recorlev and XP-8121 .
• Strategic outlook: Analyst & Investor Day laid out long-range targets: ~$750M total revenue by 2030; Recorlev ~$1B net revenue by 2035; XP-8121 peak net revenue $1–$3B .

Q&A Highlights

• Gvoke gross-to-net: CFO expects the Q2 favorability to “continue for the balance of the year,” supporting margin and revenue trajectory .
• Gvoke seasonality: Management noted Q3 “is always a bigger growth quarter” (back-to-school), implying sequential script growth in H2 .
• Recorlev prescriber mix and dosing: Majority prescriptions from endocrinology; growth driven by new patient starts, with limited near-term dose-related uplift .
• Competitive landscape: Additional competitor activity in hypercortisolism viewed as additive to market awareness—“another player… brings more noise… good for all of us” .
• Investment cadence: Planned commercial footprint expansion for Recorlev and further clinical data generation over time (beyond cortisol normalization), while maintaining adjusted EBITDA positivity .
• Gvoke VialDx: Partner (American Regent) “to launch by the end of the year”; more revenue color expected in out-years .

Estimates Context

• Q2 2025 vs Street: Revenue $71.539M vs $64.575M consensus; EPS ($0.01) vs ($0.032) consensus — both beats, consistent with guidance raise and product strength*.
• Forward Street (context):
  • Q3 2025: Revenue $74.192M*, EPS $0.0033*; Q4 2025: Revenue $81.383M*, EPS $0.0217*; Q1 2026: Revenue $83.233M*, EPS $0.0033*; Q2 2026: Revenue $92.633M*, EPS $0.0367*.
• Implications: Expect revisions higher for FY 2025 revenue and potentially EPS given Q2 beat, stronger Recorlev adds, and raised guidance; OpEx uplift may temper EPS trajectories near-term but supports long-term growth investments .

Table: Actual vs Consensus — Q2 2025

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Strong beat and raise: Revenue and EPS beats in Q2, coupled with raised FY 2025 revenue guidance ($280–$290M), are clear positive catalysts for sentiment and near-term estimate upward revisions .
• Recorlev is the growth engine: Sustained patient additions (+122% YoY), sequential acceleration (+24%), and targeted commercial expansion support durable growth into H2 and beyond .
• Gvoke steady with seasonal tailwinds: Prescription growth (+5% YoY) and expected gross-to-net favorability through year-end; Q3 back-to-school effect historically lifts scripts .
• Margin watch: Gross margin dipped to 82% on non-routine capacity costs; monitor trajectory as mix and operational efficiencies evolve; YTD margin remains strong at 84% .
• OpEx investment is deliberate: SG&A/R&D guidance increased to low-to-mid-teens YoY to fund Recorlev and XP-8121; management reaffirms positive Adjusted EBITDA going forward .
• Pipeline advance: XP-8121 moves toward pivotal Phase 3 dosing in 2026, underpinned by June Analyst Day long-term targets, offering medium-term optionality .
• Balance sheet and dilution: Company reiterated a disciplined approach and did not signal dilutive financing needs; Q2 adjusted EBITDA and improving losses support self-funding narrative .

Estimates disclaimer: Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.